Archive for June, 2010

Greg’s Market Report Week of June 22 to June 25

The Dow was down 400 points this week as worries about the weak housing market, the war, and problems with BP’s Oil Spill Disaster continue.

Existing Home Sales fell 2.2% in May and inventories rose to a 8.3 month supply. Sales were down 18.3% in the Northeast, unchanged in the Midwest, up 4.9% in the West, and up .5% in the South.
May New Home Sales (contracts signed in May for New Construction) was down a whopping 32.7%. It was the weakest new home sales figure ever! The ending of the home buyer tax credit program is really affected the housing market in a negative way (if you ask me). Now the $64,000 question is what happens to existing home sales going forward? Will we have a double dip in the housing sector? It’s anyone’s guess. One thing is for certain its a great time for buyers!

The Fed left the Fed Funds Rate Unchanged and the FOMC said they are keeping the Fed Funds target rate at 0 to .25%. They also said inflation will most likely remain at subdued level.

May New orders for Durable Goods falls to a 6 month low down 1.1% excluding transportation it was up .9%

Gold is at $1,256 an ounce and Oil is at $78.88 a barrel

Rates are at historic lows, 30 Year Fixed Rates at 4.69% and the 15 Year Fixed Rate is at 4.19%

Its anyone’s guess what happens with the economy and the markets. There are many things that are factors. The jobs situation is clearly a huge deal, without employment figures changing we are probably dead in the water. The Oil Spill Disaster is a huge issue, it is unclear what the long term affects will be but many people think it could affect the Gulf Region for decades! I sure hope not. The other problem I see is the housing market, I don’t see how this home buyer tax credit program really helped things at all? However, its a great time for buyers! Rates are at historic lows. I think we might go sideways for alittle bit until some of these issues get resolved but, we’ll have to wait and see.

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Andover MA Realtor Open Houses 6/23

I’m in Andover, MA today checking out 3 brand new listings that just came onto on the market.

The 1st property is a 1,857 Sq. Ft. Ranch. 6 Room, 3 Bedroom, 1 1/2 Bath located in Andover next to the Andover County Club. Asking price $419,900. This was my favorite listing out of the 3. It shows me that don’t necessarily have to choose the most expensive listing.

The 2nd is a 2000 Sq Ft. Gramble 7 Rooms, 3 Bedrooms, 1 1/2 Baths located in Andover. This property is totally renovated with new kitchen, floors, carpet, and a $8000 buyer credit. This property is being offered at $434,900.

The 3rd is a 1,817 Sq Ft. Cape 7 Rooms, 3 Bedrooms, 2 1/2 Baths located in Andover. This house is in a great neighborhood and is being offered at $459,000.

About the Me: The above Real Estate information was provided by Greg Afarian, l can be reached via email or send me a message on Twitter

Have a home to sell on the NorthShore in Mass? I’ll help you with my social media skills for a quick transaction to help save you time and money.

I service the following towns in Boston and the Greater Boston Area. Andover, North Andover, Lawrence, Methuen, Haverhill, Boxford, Bradford, Dracut, Reading, North Reading, and beyond.

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Stocks Stabilize Last Week, as Worries in the Gulf Continue

Greg Afarian’s Market Report week of June 14 to the 18th. The Dow was up 250 points this week which saw some stability coming back in to the market. May Producer Price Index down .3% the Core Rate which excludes food / energy was up .2%

May Housing Starts (when construction actually begins) down 10% May Building Permits (when the initial permit is filed) down 5.9% Gold hits an All Time high of $1,265 an ounce and Oil is at $77.21 a barrel

Greg Afarian’s Market Report week of June 14 to the 18th. The Dow was up 250 points this week which saw some stability coming back in to the market. May Producer Price Index down .3% the Core Rate which excludes food / energy was up .2%

May Housing Starts (when construction actually begins) down 10% May Building Permits (when the initial permit is filed) down 5.9% Gold hits an All Time high of $1,265 an ounce and Oil is at $77.21 a barrel

Home Buyer Tax Credit closing date could be extended till September 30th. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to be delisted from the DOW.

30 Year Fixed Rates at 4.82% and the 15 Year Fixed Rate is at 4.23%

Jobless Rates figures State by State saw 25 States that are below the National Unemployment Rate of 9.7%
Highest Unemployment Rates are Nevada 14%, Michigan 13.6%, California 12.4%, Rhode Island 12.3%
Lowest Unemployment Rates are North Dakota 3.6%, South Dakota 4.6%, Nebraska 4.9%

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Market Stability Isn’t Coming Anytime Soon! Is Gold a Safe Bet?

Is Gold a Safe Bet?

Market stability isn’t coming anytime soon! This was another volital week that seems to go up one day and sell off the next. Today’s May Retail Sales figure down 1.2% was the biggest decline in the past 8 months. The key questions going forward are, does this have anything to do with the unemployment rate currently at 9.7% and is the consumer all done spending or will they be back? Retail Sales measures the pulse of the consumer and is a key indicator of how the economy may be doing. On the flip side, it seems that the confidence level of the consumer is doing okay. Consumer Sentiment in June (prelim) was up to 75.5% VS May’s figure of 73.6%.

mortgage application decline again

Mortgage applications decreased 5.7% this past week and is down 30.4% since Memorial Day week last year. This is a huge figure and no doubt directly correlated with the ending of the Home Buyer Tax Credit Program. Many people are concerned about weakness coming back to the housing sector. It is still my opinion that there hasn’t been a better time to buy in the past 20+ years. Mortgage rates have been stable and this is great for the housing market. 30 Year Fixed Rate National average was down alittle to 4.81% and the 15 Year Fixed Rate average rose slightly to 4.26%. Home prices gained .9% in April month over month but, down 2.8% year over year.

Yesterday the market saw it’s 3rd best day in 2010 and was up 273 points. It is my opinion which is also shared with alot of other Wall Streeter’s that you should be buying on the dips and selling into the rallies. This is how I would be trading in a market like this. The days of long term investing is gone for right now and the key is to preserve as much of your capital as possible.

Many things still trouble the markets and a resolution to these things don’t seem likely anytime soon. BP’s Oil Disaster is a huge burden, as well as the potential credit crisis spreading in Europe. However, today’s auction of the Spain and Italy Bonds (which went well) seem to indicate the debt issue may not be as bad as people had expected. The Euro stabilizing is another positive sign. I feel gold hitting an all time high on Tuesday $1,245 an ounce is an extremely negative factor hanging over the market and an indication that the market / people feel the debt crisis may not be over. I still believe that if you want our economy to grow we have to stop the massive government spending and cut taxes across the board to promote growth. Since this isn’t the way the current administration is heading (actually directly the opposite) we may be in for some turbulent times ahead.

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Big Sell Off as a Weak Jobs Report Casts a Dark Cloud Over Wall Street, Dow Closing Below 10,000

Not Hiring

Not Hiring

Big sell off as a weak Jobs Report casts a dark cloud over Wall Street! This seems as though its exactly were we left off last month after seeing the worst decline for the month of May since 1962! This week was all about the continuation of BP‘s Oil Spill Disaster, Jobs Report, and Housing Data.

Today’s Jobs Report was a disappointing figure. The market opened lower this morning with this terrible number and the sell off continued to accelerate throughout the day dropping below 10,000 down 310 points to 9,946. The Department of Labor said that Jobs grew by 431,000 in May but, went on to say that nearly all those jobs were temporary census workers. There were 411,000 census workers added and only 41,000 private sector jobs created. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 9.7% however there are still 4.66 million continuing to receive jobless benefits. I find this figure to be a huge smoke screen! Why should temporary work be classified as employment? Isn’t the goal of employment to be employed for a long period of time? What happens when this work ends? Will these people then be able to file for unemployment? Sounds like a horrible scenario to me!

Pending Home Sales were up 6% in April and the Index is up 22.4% year over year. Pending Home Sales in the Northeast were up 29.5% in the month of April. These are contracts signed not closed. Many Realtor’s surveyed are unsure if these homes will closes by the June 30th Home Buyer Tax Credit deadline due to the overwhelming amount of short sales and appraisals that are taking longer than expected. May will be the 1st month in 16 months that the Government isn’t paying people to buy homes. I have been saying for quite a long time that these numbers are lagging indicators (old data) and the real news will be what happens after the June 30th date.

Mortgage applications to purchase homes dropped 4.1% this past week. It was down the 4th straight week and down a staggering 40% from last month which is the lowest level since April of 1997! Mortgage rates remain low which is good for the housing market. The 30 year fixed rate national average is at 4.625% and the 15 year fixed rate average is 4.125%.

BP Oil Spill Disaster

Out of all the news, I think the most disturbing is the continued failed efforts by BP to stop the oil from pouring into the Gulf of Mexico. I just can’t fathom why it has taken so long to get this thing shut off? It’s also baffling that the oil industry as a whole doesn’t have methods in place for times like these when things go horribly wrong. My heart goes out to all those people in the Gulf that are affected. It’s a terrible situation with no real answer of what the long term effects will be.

Looking ahead we have some big challenges to be dealt with. For me, a major question is how long this economy can run effectively not running on all 8 cylinders? I think there are some major issues abroad in Europe with the credit issues looming to other countries and in China that need to be addressed! What happens if China Real Estate Market (bubble) experiences a similar situation we did in the U.S.?

The employment issue is defiantly a problem as well. The Government needs to give back to small business to encourage employment. That is the only way to grow our economy. Entitlement programs need to be cut, extending unemployment benefits is not the way to get people back to work.

The long term affects of this oil disaster will also have a huge impact moving forward. The amount of work that could be lost along the Gulf Coast could be catastrophic! Some analysts say the loss of jobs alone in the tourism industry could be greater than the fishing industry as a whole. That is a scary thought! I pray that the efforts are successful and things can get back to some sort of normality for these folks.

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