Much of this week was shadowed by the Fed and their warning of a slowing economy over the past months. They kept the Feds Funds Rate unchanged and leaves the interest rate target at 0 to 1/4%. The FOMC also said they will keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period of time. Something positive they said was that inflation is likely to be subdued for sometime which I thought was good. Today’s weekly jobless claims was up 2,000 to 484,000 for the week ended 8/7. The problem I see and the market is thinking is that at some point the Fed will run out of carrots from that magic hat! What we need now is for the Government to step back and let things work out on their own. They have done alot and spent more than $800 Billion to assist the weak economy. No amount of Government spending can jump start an economy.

1 out of 4 Sellers said they lowered their prices in July. They lowered there prices an average of 10%. July Single Family Pending Home Sales (put under agreement) was down 18% year over year and Condo’s were down 28%. This was the 3rd straight down number for pending home sales which brings up a good question is a double dip recession coming for the housing market? Its hard to believe with rates at record lows why isn’t the housing market improving? I think the answer is simple. Consumer Confidence, Jobs, and the Economy…. It seems some buyers are worried about values but, one thing is for certain its a buyers market and it may never be a better time to buy.

The DOW so far this week has been down more than 350 points to 10,320.

Gold is at $1,217 an ounce and Oil is at $76 a barrel.

Rates have done well again. 30 year fixed rate is at 4.57% w/ .89 points and the 15 year is at 3.95% w/ 1.08 points.

Inflation, Deflation, Jobs, and the Consumer. Where is the economy heading? Thursday’s jobless claims rose 19,000 to 479,000 week ending July 31st and people filing for continuing claims dipped slightly to 4.537 Million vs. last weeks 4.571 Million. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s unemployment report which will likely be a determining factor in the direction of the market. Friday’s anemic July’s Jobs Report was down 131,000 jobs and the unemployment rate stays unchanged at 9.5%. This was a worse than expected number. The good news is that the private sector did add 71,000 jobs but, it was far worse than expected. The DOW Futures point to a negative open. It seems to me that a permante tax cut needs to be addressed!

The Bank of England leaves rates unchanged at .5%. This was good news and shows they are on the same page as the Federal Reserve and monitoring the financial situation closely. The $64,000 question is who will win the fight of Inflation VS. Deflation? Both are a pretty bad situation to be hoping for. Higher inflation means higher prices on goods and services but deflation means prices on goods and services are going down which typically may suggest a recession. When prices don’t go up that means companies aren’t generating higher profits which is bad for the stock market.

Another key question is if the consumer is slowing down? The health of the consumer is on everyones mind. Companies like Proctor & Gamble, Dean Foods, and Clorox all guided lower earnings going forward. The consumer and spending is what we need to stay ahead of the curve in order not to fall back into a recession.

30 Year Fixed Rate Average hit another record low at 4.60% and the 15 Year Fixed Rate Average is at 4.03%

Oil is at $82.21 a barrel and gold is at $1,197 an ounce. The DOW was up 209 point through Thursday so far this week and the jobs number tomorrow will sure be a guide to what happens.

Greg Afarian’s Market Report Week of July 26th to the 30th. The Fed and comments from the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard seemed to overshadow the market this week. His statement that chances of deflation is a risk spooked the markets on Thursday which saw the Dow drop 200 points. He went on to compare the U.S. Economy to Japan which I feel may of been uncalled for. Japan has had negative grow for a decade and the Nikkei has been down 68% over that time period. I would hate to see that happen in the U.S. These comments from Bullard may be more of a concern / warning than anything. He is still looking for moderate growth. But, todays anemic GDP numbers seem to play right into the thoughts of a double dip. Even though growth was moderate 2nd quarter GDP at 2.4% real GDP for the past 4 quarters grew at 3.2%. I feel even though these numbers are positive figures the $64,000 question is with all that stimulus and we grew at only 3%, where do we go from here?

Weekly jobless claims were down 11,000 to 457,000 week ending 7/24 and continuing claims week ending 7/17 was 4.565 Million vs. 4.484 Million the prior week. Consumer confidence for July dipped to 50.4 vs. June’s 54.3.

June new home sales (new construction) surged up 23.6% vs. May’s horrendous down figure of 36.7% which was sort of puzzling. These numbers came as a surprise as most Realtors say that buyer traffic is down since the ending of the home buyer tax credit program. My only thought is that this number represents new construction sales that went under contract prior to April 30th and continue to close due to the extension till September 30, 2010.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac say that prime loans are accelerating into foreclosure and a noticeable decline in home prices has occurred from May to June which breaks down as the following

Foreclosures prices down 6.8%
Short Sale prices down 6.3%
Non-Distressed prices down 4.6%

So key questions for the housing market going forward is what happens if rates go up and will that spark buyers to move? 30 year fixed rates are at 4.64% and 15 year fixed rates are at 4.12% Mortgage apps fell 4.4% last week as refi’s fell 5.9% as purchase apps rose 2%.

The market did okay this week, the DOW was up 144 points as Oil reached $78.96 and Gold is at $1,184 an ounce.

I think the questions going forward is not if the 800 Billion Dollar Stimulus Plan worked or as to how well did it work? I feel that one thing that needs to be done is extending the Bush Tax Cuts! I defiantly don’t see the U.S. Taxing our way out of this situation. I think that the private sector needs any incentives to expend growth which will lead to job creation! The facts are that 14.5 Million people are out of work in the U.S. and 7.5 Million of them have been out of work for more than 24 months. That is not good! We need to provide benefits and tax cuts to small business / employers to create these jobs. I think that there is a silver lining here. Even though this negative environment companies continue to have good earnings. There still hasn’t been a better time in the past 20 years to be a home buyer and with historic low interest rates this could be the opportunity people are looking for.

Greg’s Market Report week of July 19th, 2010. It was a pretty good week this week on Wall St. The market saw lots of economic news this week in the housing market and the Fed was on Capitol Hill giving their semi-annual report on the US Economy. June Existing Home Sales were down 5.1% last month which was an increase of 9.8% year over year. The big story was that inventories were up 2.5% to 3.99 Million units for sale which represents a 8.9 month supply!

What is a bit concerning is that these are numbers when the Home Buyer Tax Credit Program was still going on in April and they were still weak. 1st time buyers still represent 43% of the market and all cash buyers are a staggering 27%! This is the breakdown of Existing Home across the region. Northeast was up 7.9%, Midwest was down 7.5%, South was down 6.5%, and the West was down 9.3%. Distressed sales are still 1/3 of all market transactions 32%. Foreclosure sales are falling as short sales are rising. 30 Year Fixed Rate National Average was down to 4.59% and the 15 Year was down 4.05%. June Building Permits were up 2.1% as June Housing Starts were down 5.0%. One step forward and two steps back.

1st Time Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected up 37,000 to 464,000 week ended July 17. This number was alittle out of line from expected but continuing claims week ending July 10th were better than expected at 4.487 Million vs the prior week 4.710 Million.

The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was on Capitol Hill to give his testimony on the condition of the US Economy on its Semi Annual Address. I felt most of the 2 day address was pretty positive. The fact is that most of this information is old and we already know most of these facts. Even though, the market sold off on Wednesday but rebounded on Thursday. Most of the concern of the testimony was about the exist strategy plan when the Fed eventually has to start raising rates. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing cause it means the worst is behind us and the economy is getting better. Some of the highlights was the following.

*Fed expects inflation to be subdued
*Unemployment is improving
*Expansion is proceeding at a moderate pace
*The Fed still has tools in its tool box if the economy does slow
*Financial Regulation Bill will enforce stronger standards which will minimize risk of another crisis

The one statement the markets didn’t like was that the Fed feels that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain!

The way I see it is that the real problem is the Federal Government and their unwillingness to understand that it is small business that will help the economy with job growth. If you easy the burden on small businesses with lower tax rates it will help expansion and further growth. The Federal Government has only gotten bigger and they are now taking a bigger role in the private sector which is only going to create bigger problems, more regulation, and higher taxes. This is clearly not the way to prosperity. The good news is that even with this negative environment companies area coming out with big earnings and things look a recovery is coming!

Greg Afarian’s Market Report Week of July 12th to the 16th. Not a ton of economic news this week and the Dow traded flat for the week. Producer Price Index came out this week, which measures inflation on the consumer’s side and it was down .5% for June. Excluding food and energy the core rate was up .1%. This was a better than expected number and shows that inflation at the current time is not an issue. Many people are questioning if deflation might be an issue but, at the current moment that is unlikely.

Jobless Claims for people that are filing for their 1st time week ending July 10th was down 31,000 to 429,000. That was also a better than expected number but the number that I thought was concerning was the continuing claims figure which was up to 4.681 Million vs. 4.4 Million the prior week.

Falling home prices, 24% of all sellers on the market say they have dropped prices at least once since 7/1. That is a 9% increase from June! 30 year fixed rates are stable at 4.69% and the 15 year fixed rate is at 4.12%

Interesting news, iphone 4 is it a lemon? Yankees Owner George Steinbrenner dies at the age of 80. Bought the Yankees in 1973 for $8.7 Million now worth more that 1 Billion plus 2 other companies work well over another Billion!China growth slows to 10.3% in Quarter 2 and better than expected inflation numbers for them makes it seem things are pretty well in check.

My final thoughts…. Deflation is the big risk even though it may be unlikely. The $64,000 question is with very little inflation and rates at record lows how is the Fed going to engineer a successful exit strategy with what we call a “Soft Landing”. What they will eventually have to do is start-raising rates and the question will be how the markets react when that happens. I still feel that we need to keep rates low to help businesses and consumers. You also need to keep taxes low so that Americans to help consumers to continue to spend. I wouldn’t want to repeat what happened in the early 2000’s and if history does repeat itself that could be a bad situation for everyone!

Andover Market Basket closed after 44 years of service! A popular landmark in Andover, it was one of the only Supermarkets in Andover. It closed June 26 which isn’t new news but, when I recently visited the Shawsheen Village Plaza it was an eerie and sad sight. I remember going to that market as a child with my mom and was recently in there not too long ago which brought back lots of memories.

As I stood in the empty parking lot, two cars pulled up and the peoples expression was priceless. They were unaware that it had closed. The reason why it closed was pretty simple. The building is owned by Stop & Shop and they didn’t renew their lease. This brought a pretty interesting point to me. I’m not sure if 44 years ago it might of been possible to have bought that building or a lease option with the possibility to own but that might have saved them from closing this location. Most of the time when it involves commercial real estate it’s the only option you’ll have, especially in key locations. But, this brings up a great debate in the rent / lease vs. own questions on which is better? I would say that right now it has never been a better time to own in decades. The $64,000 question is whether or not the American people feel that way.

Greg Afarian’s Market Report week of July 6 to July 9th. The Market Rebounds after 3 weeks of selling off as stocks see there best week in a year.The DOW was up more than 468 points this week. Many Wall Streeter’s feel this could be a summer rally, I think after the huge run off it was more like a relief rally.

This week was a short week of trading due to the observance of the 4th of July. Not alot of key economic news this week. June Same Store Sales was weak as the consumer is slowing their spending and it seems a pattern of selective spending could be a trend.

The 30 Year hit an all time low / record as the 30 YR Fixed Rate dips to 4.57% and the 15 YR Fixed Rate is at 4.07%. Mortgage Apps this past week for Refi’s were up 9.2% and purchase apps were down 2.2%. Purchase apps are down 30% since April which seems as though the ending of the Home Buyer Tax Program is really effecting the market.

Oil is at $76.39 a barrel and Gold is at $1,212 an ounce. Weekly Jobless Claims were better than expected for the week ending of 7/3 with 1st time claims falling 21,000 to 454,000. Stocks in the news, Google is back in China and Zillow & Yahoo make a partnership for online real estate advertising.

About the Me: The above Real Estate information was provided by Greg Afarian, l can be reached via email or send me a message on Twiter Have a home to sell on the NorthShore in Mass? I’ll help you with my social media skills for a quick transaction to help save you time and money. I service the following towns in Boston and the Greater Boston Area. Andover, North Andover, Lawrence, Methuen, Haverhill, Boxford, Bradford, Dracut, Reading, North Reading, and beyond.

Greg Afarian’s Market Report for the week of 6/28 to 7/2. This has been a pretty negative week for stocks and the housing sector. The only bright side for housing was interest rates that saw the 30 year fixed rate hit a 50 year low.
30 Year Fixed Rate National average at 4.67% and 15 Year fixed Rate National Average at 4.06%. Todays employment report was better than expected with 125K non-farm payroll jobs added in the month of June. The private sector added 83K jobs and the unemployment report dipped to 9.5% which is the lowest since June 2009. It didn’t stop the market from selling off. The Dow lost 10% in the 2nd quarter as it loses another 450+ drop this week.

Apple was in the news again this week as it had the most successful product launch with its new iphone. It sold 1.7 Million Units in the 1st 3 days. Apple is 2nd to Exxon Mobil as the largest / most valuable company in US! Consumer Confidence falls in June to 52.9% which pushed the market lower. Gold was stable this week at $1,212 an OZ and Oil is at $72.41 a barrel.

Pending Home Sales fell off a cliff in May 30% and was down 16% year over year. It was down 32.6% in the Northeast, 32.1% in the MidWest, 33.3% in the South, and 20.9% in the West. 30 year fixed rates are at 50 year lows! 30 year average is at 4.67% and the 15 year fixed is at 4.06%.

The popular Home Buyer Tax Credit Program was extended for those people that were under contract to 9/30. Many people are questioning if the $800 Billion Stimulus worked? I would look at it as putting a band aid on a gushing wound. It may help at the beginning but won’t last long. I feel that we need to be helping all the other people that pay taxes. We need to cut taxes across the board to stimulate business growth. It’s when business owners feel confident is when the rest of the economy will follow.

The Dow was down 400 points this week as worries about the weak housing market, the war, and problems with BP’s Oil Spill Disaster continue.

Existing Home Sales fell 2.2% in May and inventories rose to a 8.3 month supply. Sales were down 18.3% in the Northeast, unchanged in the Midwest, up 4.9% in the West, and up .5% in the South.
May New Home Sales (contracts signed in May for New Construction) was down a whopping 32.7%. It was the weakest new home sales figure ever! The ending of the home buyer tax credit program is really affected the housing market in a negative way (if you ask me). Now the $64,000 question is what happens to existing home sales going forward? Will we have a double dip in the housing sector? It’s anyone’s guess. One thing is for certain its a great time for buyers!

The Fed left the Fed Funds Rate Unchanged and the FOMC said they are keeping the Fed Funds target rate at 0 to .25%. They also said inflation will most likely remain at subdued level.

May New orders for Durable Goods falls to a 6 month low down 1.1% excluding transportation it was up .9%

Gold is at $1,256 an ounce and Oil is at $78.88 a barrel

Rates are at historic lows, 30 Year Fixed Rates at 4.69% and the 15 Year Fixed Rate is at 4.19%

Its anyone’s guess what happens with the economy and the markets. There are many things that are factors. The jobs situation is clearly a huge deal, without employment figures changing we are probably dead in the water. The Oil Spill Disaster is a huge issue, it is unclear what the long term affects will be but many people think it could affect the Gulf Region for decades! I sure hope not. The other problem I see is the housing market, I don’t see how this home buyer tax credit program really helped things at all? However, its a great time for buyers! Rates are at historic lows. I think we might go sideways for alittle bit until some of these issues get resolved but, we’ll have to wait and see.

Greg Afarian’s Market Report week of June 14 to the 18th. The Dow was up 250 points this week which saw some stability coming back in to the market. May Producer Price Index down .3% the Core Rate which excludes food / energy was up .2%

May Housing Starts (when construction actually begins) down 10% May Building Permits (when the initial permit is filed) down 5.9% Gold hits an All Time high of $1,265 an ounce and Oil is at $77.21 a barrel

Greg Afarian’s Market Report week of June 14 to the 18th. The Dow was up 250 points this week which saw some stability coming back in to the market. May Producer Price Index down .3% the Core Rate which excludes food / energy was up .2%

May Housing Starts (when construction actually begins) down 10% May Building Permits (when the initial permit is filed) down 5.9% Gold hits an All Time high of $1,265 an ounce and Oil is at $77.21 a barrel

Home Buyer Tax Credit closing date could be extended till September 30th. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to be delisted from the DOW.

30 Year Fixed Rates at 4.82% and the 15 Year Fixed Rate is at 4.23%

Jobless Rates figures State by State saw 25 States that are below the National Unemployment Rate of 9.7%
Highest Unemployment Rates are Nevada 14%, Michigan 13.6%, California 12.4%, Rhode Island 12.3%
Lowest Unemployment Rates are North Dakota 3.6%, South Dakota 4.6%, Nebraska 4.9%